Ripple’s XRP has dropped below support at $0.50, currently trading at $0.480. Failure to push on beyond 0.53 has sucked the fight out of the bulls.
Volumes have shrunk accordingly to just $514 million a day.
A Fib retracement to the bottom of the 0.23 division yesterday, losing more than 7% has seen a bounce back of sorts today.
The price is currently clinging to the 50-day simple moving average on the 1 hour chart. XRP is up 1.7% in the past 24 hours, building in support at $0.50531which is the top of the first division.
However, even that target looks a long way off for now as participants recover from the buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news reaction to the launch of RippleNet and the annual Ripple Swell event that opened at the beginning of the month in San Francisco and included Bill Clinton among its keynote speakers.
In reality XRP has regressed to its near-term downtrend channel on the 1-hour, with a reversal requiring higher volume and exciting news flow. There is not enough momentum at the start of the week to suggest any movement higher just yet, but that could change in the next day or two. Put a stop loss at $0.435 because a fall below major resistance at that level would be a red flag for bulls signalling further weakness.
With the price below the 50MA since 5 October, and only briefly rising above it late in the same session, the impetus for the next trend break could come from without, in particular if bitcoin makes the dash for $6,800.
Strong support established on 25 October at $0.435 (red dashed line on 4-hour chart) will provide the band of our near-term price range, with $0.626 the top of the band.
However, the bears are running the show at the moment but expect buyers to appear under $0.50, with news flow helping to maintain its popularity with retail investors.
Challenging resistance remains at $0.49. Notice on the 4-hour how the 50MA has moved up to 0.54. That remains the near-term price target and is the upper part of the band identified as a support region last week (that didn’t work out!).