Fundstrat’s Tom Lee hasn’t given up on five-figure year-end price targets for bitcoin quite yet.Although $25,000 is not exactly in play, Lee still thinks it is a possibility we get to $20,000 this year. Sure, anything is possible in this world but $20k is a stretch. This is what Lee told the unfortunately named Blockchainchick (you can tell it is a male-dominated industry):
People are too bearish… What happens is people get bearish because it makes sense. You know the market conditions have been terrible and we are under our 200-day moving average.
Lee’s comments were somewhat contradictory given that he said in the same interview that the technicals suggest a different price outcome:
We [at Fundstrat] just published a report this week that pointed out to our clients that when Bitcoin is under its 200-day, it only goes up 50% of the time in the next six months. But when it’s above its 200-day, it is up 80% of the time [in the next six months], so the trend implied by the 200-day is obviously very important.
Lee see mining costs rising to $8-9,000 by the end of the year and by doubling and allowing for an overshoot, he gets to a price above $20k. See the full interview below:
Moro says $10,000 for BTC
Elsewhere Michael Moro, the chief executive of Genesis Global Trading which specialises in over-the-counter crypto trading, thinks $10,000 is a possibility. He was on CNBC’s Fast Money show yesterday. This is what he said:
“The last time I was on this show, I said that we were more likely to see $10,000 in Bitcoin then $5,000. So far, I’m not wrong. So I am still sticking by that prediction. Because of what we are seeing in the ebbs and flows on the loans side [of our business] I have that confidence that I don’t think we will see $5,000 flat. [However,] timing wise, I am not too sure when this is going to happen.”
In the same interview he also made the case for bitcoin as digital gold and thought that many were buying on that basis. However, bitcoin is yet to prove itself in that regard:
“Whether Bitcoin is ultimately a digital form of gold, I think that question is still very much an open-ended question. I do think that investors believe that it is digital gold and use that as a case to buy the asset, but it needs to prove itself as digital gold.”
Here’s the interview:
— CNBC's Fast Money (@CNBCFastMoney) October 18, 2018
The Kenyan crypto frontier
A nice adoption story doing the rounds this morning comes from Kenya. There, Beatrice Wambugu started trading traded bitcoin about two years ago and made enough money to buy the two-storey Nyeri hotel. The hotel is now called Betty’s Place – a restaurant serving up barbecued goats meat and other favourites. She accepts payment in dash and Bitcoin in addition to fiat.
The BBC has the story in more detail and here is an excerpt:
“I’ve set aside one day where I can teach my customers. Whoever asks about crypto-currencies: ‘How does it work? What is Bitcoin?’ I train them,” she says.
Mobile phones make paying with crypto-currency at Betty’s Place and other retailers easy.
In Africa the mobile phone has been instrumental in transforming the way people conduct business, and the growth of Bitcoin could one day rival mobile banking platforms like M-Pesa as a viable form of payment.
The crypto market is trimming some value this morning, with bitcoin trading at $6,484. NEM and Tezos are the only gainers in the top 20 this morning. XRP is 1.6% lower at $0.453, according to coinmarketcap. Qtum, the 26th-ranked asset is 10% higher today at $4.47. It briefly spiked above $6.00 early morning. Lower down the table, Basic Attention Token and Ravencoin have both been on a tear.
Qtum became an Amazon Web Services partner in China last week. The Singapore project is strong in China, where most of its nodes operate.