Crypto is dumping and miners are going bust. After a relatively quiet session yesterday, bitcoin had managed to claw back from a low of $4,117 on Coinbase but is now slumping again. All the factors that came into play to trigger the crash, are still here. Market cap is $142 billion, with most top alts in the red.
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMex exchange and its chief executive, was right in his observation back in July that the market had further to fall, likely below $5,000.
Hayes reckons the bear market could have another 18 months to run as the price to pay for the run-up to $20,000. The unwinding of those losing positions is at the root of the current demise and is also acting as a fear barrier to new entrants to the market. Fear of missing out drew in the buyers; now falling prices are repelling possible buyers, turning FOMO into fear of losing.
Right now the bitcoin price looks likely to fall below $4,000. It is currently priced at $4,248 with downward momentum building going into the weekend. $2,000 could come into view in the absence of catalysts and the probable disapproval of a bitcoin ETF.
New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini says the “crypto bubble went bust for good”. Another economist begs to differ.
The Lebanese University’s Dr Saifedean Ammous and author of The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralised Alternative to Central Banking, sees bitcoin as ushering a new period of “hard money” similar to the era of the gold standard, which he describes as “the most transformative and innovative period in human history since the late 18th century and early 19th century”
He states that crypto “is going to offer people a new, hard form of money that cannot be inflated”.
BTCUSD 1-week chart, Coinbase
Miners under pressure
With prices at these levels, miners are going to stop mining. News that mining farm business GigaWatt, based in the US state of Washington, has filed for bankruptcy is one early signs of more failures to come.
With miners under pressure, keep an eye on news from Bitmain about its IPO given that competitor Canaan has just abandoned its fundraise.
Bitmain is thought to be losing money mining Bitcoin Cash, as is Calvin Ayre’s coingeek. It will be interesting to see how long the hashwar continues or whether they agree a truce. At the moment that last outcome doesn’t seem at all likely (see below).
Norway has just withdrawn the subsidies it used to provide to crypto miners. Bulls looking for buy signals will be wanting to wait for big mining industry players to go bust and have their equipment bought up for a nominal sum, before hashrate on the network starts to rise again. Hashrate has been rising all year a but started trending lower since October.
What happened to Telegram and Filecoin?
Then there are all all those projects that raised money but have delivered nothing.
BitMex Research newsletter lists 10 tokens that raised more than $50 million and doubts whether any of them will ever list on an exchange. Here’s the list:
These deals have massive valuations, and many of the most venerated token funds took down large chunks. It is unclear when, if ever, these deals will ever list on the secondary market.
Given the large amount of token supply out there, who will buy this shit?
Can you really mark these investments to the last round price?
There are anecdotal reports of funds attempting to sell their SAFT interest, and the prices offered were way below the last round price.
2019 is going to be the year of reckoning for many funds. You can mark something to an absurd level in year 1. But the meter starts again on January 1st. If these things come to market, there will be no accounting tricks to hide the gargantuan losses that these funds will post.
A report this week claimed that the Telegram crypto was “70% complete”.With the Justice Department investigation manipulation and the SEC stepping up action against ICOs, the regulatory headwinds are back on the agenda
Kraken being investigated?
The revelation that the DoJ and SEC are looking into market manipulation has been given an added twist by Calvin Ayre, the billionaire behind the Bitcoin Cash SV mining operation (coingeek). Ayre has claimed that Kraken is in the mix:
current prediction is that ABC chain will collapse and BCH will remain Satoshi Vision as the most likely outcome of the hash war. Criminal and SEC investigations are under way in the US based on docs leaked to us. Kraken named also.
— Calvin Ayre (@CalvinAyre) November 21, 2018
He says he “will release the private docs I received next week”, so we look forward to that. Most exchanges have given Bitcoin Cash ABC the BCH ticker. In Kraken’s case it also went so far as to label BCHSV “high risk”, and that seems to have caught the attention of the SV people.
Although BSV will continue on its own chain, it looks like it is on trajectory of going to zero, as it is currently priced at $40, with BCH at $205.
Stellar has taken the fourth slot in the market cap rankings, pushing BCH into fifth place.
Ayre will release the “private docs” he was sent “next week”:
Bitcoin price targets… pick a number
As far as price targets go, there are still some bulls out there. Tom Lee of FundStarts is sticking with $15,000 target for year end. Entrepreneur and investor Tim Draper is another one who is not giving up on bitcoin just yet. Draper has a price target of $250,000 by 2022.