His rationale is that most of the money that entered the market in the bull market has now exited. However, if support at $4,200 doesn’t hold then there are no clear intermediary support levels to stop the price plummeting to $3,000. Many of those doing the retail selling today likely bought in 2016, says Moro.
Genesis Trading’s business is in the over-the-counter (OTC) market and Moro says the high-rollers and institutions more likely to use OTC have still been buying. He reckons most of the selling has been from retail investors and we are now seeing people who bought before the bull market last year, questioning whether they should be hodling.
“It’s really difficult. There are small levels of resistance, and we’ve seen the 4000 level get tested twice now in the last couple days, but I really don’t think there’s too much in the mid 3000s, so you won’t find much until you hit the 3k flat level,” says Moro.
Moro reminded his CNBC audience that we have been here before with bitcoin, having seen at least five falls of 75% or more, only for the price to surpass previous all-time highs.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $4,248 on Coinbase, so keep an eye on support at $4,200. If it crashes through that level all best are off. Bitcoin has twice tested the $4,000 level this week.
Institutions have a longer-term outlook
A fall to $3,000 would still be 200% above the $1,000 recorded at the beginning of 2017. The implications of that can be taken in two ways – there is much further to fall as earlier buyers worry about their portfolio returns turning negative, or new buyers will overcome feats of catching a falling knife and enter the market.
On that last point, Moro says that institutions have a three to 5-year outlook so they are not obsessing on day-to-day price movements.
BTCUSD 30mins chart, Coinbase
Gary has been writing about cryptocurrencies since 2013 and currently works as the cryptocurrency analyst at interactive investor, the UK’s second-largest online investment platform. Gary contributes for Coin Intelligence News in a personal capacity and none of his commentary should be considered investment advice. Gary is the winner of the ADVFN International Financial Awards 2018 Cryptocurrency Writer of the Year. Contact Gary on twitter at: @gary_mcfarlane