The crypto traders’ friend Altcoin Thoreau observes that if bitcoin (BTC) trading continues in the same pattern, then 1 November 2018 will be the first time that it has delivered a negative return on a year on year view.
Thoreau tweeted yesterday (21 October), the one-year anniversary of the first time that bitcoin crossed the $6,000 threshold.
One year ago October 21st 2017 was first time that $BTC went over $6000.
If Bitcoin price stays in current range November 1st 2018 will be the first time where Bitcoin's price is negative on year over year basis.
— Altcoin Thoreau (@cvrbonbased) October 22, 2018
1 November, a date to watch?
The significance of 1 November can also of course be interpreted with a bullish mindset, as the chart below shows.
Our dashed purple line shows the $6,000 support level and the blue (week view) vertical line the 1 November 2017 break above $6,000.
The strong support given at $6,000 is evident in the much commented upon descending triangle wedge of the 2018 price action.
That has seen market participants’ confidence grow that the bottom is in – seen in the lack of a fall below support rather than in buying strength.
The tightening tension of the wedge and the strengthening bottom at $6,000, and alongside that Thoreau’s bearish signal, indicate a market where bulls and bears are well matched, cancelling each other out for now.
However, the 1 November could be an important turning point for the market if it shows up in the algos of traders.
It could be that it will be the breach of bitcoin’s $6,000 support that triggers the much-anticipated but yet to materialise trend reversal.
Gary has been writing about cryptocurrencies since 2013 and currently works as the cryptocurrency analyst at interactive investor, the UK’s second-largest online investment platform. Gary contributes for Coin Intelligence News in a personal capacity and none of his commentary should be considered investment advice. Gary is the winner of the ADVFN International Financial Awards 2018 Cryptocurrency Writer of the Year. Contact Gary on twitter at: @gary_mcfarlane