The crypto traders’ friend Altcoin Thoreau observes that if bitcoin (BTC) trading continues in the same pattern, then 1 November 2018 will be the first time that it has delivered a negative return on a year on year view.
Thoreau tweeted yesterday (21 October), the one-year anniversary of the first time that bitcoin crossed the $6,000 threshold.
One year ago October 21st 2017 was first time that $BTC went over $6000.
If Bitcoin price stays in current range November 1st 2018 will be the first time where Bitcoin's price is negative on year over year basis.
— Altcoin Thoreau (@cvrbonbased) October 22, 2018
1 November, a date to watch?
The significance of 1 November can also of course be interpreted with a bullish mindset, as the chart below shows.
Our dashed purple line shows the $6,000 support level and the blue (week view) vertical line the 1 November 2017 break above $6,000.
The strong support given at $6,000 is evident in the much commented upon descending triangle wedge of the 2018 price action.
That has seen market participants’ confidence grow that the bottom is in – seen in the lack of a fall below support rather than in buying strength.
The tightening tension of the wedge and the strengthening bottom at $6,000, and alongside that Thoreau’s bearish signal, indicate a market where bulls and bears are well matched, cancelling each other out for now.
However, the 1 November could be an important turning point for the market if it shows up in the algos of traders.
It could be that it will be the breach of bitcoin’s $6,000 support that triggers the much-anticipated but yet to materialise trend reversal.